When Will Covid End?

Recently, I wrote about what is coming with Covid and what businesses need to do to adapt.

We know how to end Covid. Masks, contact tracing, targeted lockdowns, and curtailing large gatherings prevent spread. Vaccines shut down whole variants.

Like seatbelts and vitamins, all these tools only work if we use them. People will only use them when everyone perceives Covid to be serious enough to act on.

Continue reading “When Will Covid End?”

Covid Part II — What you need to know to prepare your business

(Note added August 10th, 2021): In this article, I suggest that Lambda is vaccine resistant, and will cause a major spike. Since writing this article, further research has shown that Lambda does not seem to be vaccine resistant. However, this does not mean that the events I describe will not happen. It only means that they will not happen right now with that one particular variant. The general point remains valid.

A month ago, I looked at the data available to me and predicted that within a month or two, we would see masking come back and possible lockdowns. Now that these have come to pass, I want to be more intentional in sharing what I am seeing.

Covid is not only not over but what is coming in the next 18 months will be worse than the previous 18 months. The difference is that the warning signs are here and businesses have time to prepare, if they know what to prepare for.

I’m not going to talk about the politics or the underlying causes. The purpose of this article is to share with business owners and anyone else who needs to prepare a general idea of what we might expect in the next 18 months, and what you can do to prepare your business.

What’s Happening?

Delta is giving us a preview of what variants will do. It’s high infectivity and partial vaccine resistance are causing numbers to rise again, mask mandates to return, and uncertainty in people’s plans and activities.

Continue reading “Covid Part II — What you need to know to prepare your business”

Dealing with Covid Analysis Paralysis

Analysis Paralysis

As we head into 2021, there is a great deal of uncertainty which can lead to analysis paralysis. Will Covid get under control or are we due for a months of lockdowns? Will the economy stabilize or will it plunge into recession?

The future is never predicable. We only have the illusion of predictability. In January 2020, you may have thought you had certainty, but that was not accurate.

How do you deal with uncertainty and make the crucial decisions that you need to make when planning for 2021?

Avoid Analysis Paralysis By Developing Scenarios

There is a continuum of scenarios that you could encounter over the next year which ranges from everything opens completely to everything shuts down completely.

If we break that down to three for simplicity, let’s call them Scenarios A, B, and C.
A – Covid goes away and everything returns to normal
B – Things continue as they are with uncertainty, occasional shutdowns, and economic instability
C – Full lockdown for an extended period.

Consider any plan you are considering against all three scenarios. The first question should be “does this plan allow my business to survive all three scenarios?” If there is a scenario in which your business fails, then you’re taking a big gamble. This is playing defense, making sure you don’t lose before you can win.

Next you ask “does my business thrive in one or more of these scenarios with this plan?” Now, we’re on offense, finding ways to win.

Within each scenario, figure out the best and worse case scenarios of any plan you’re considering. There’s more uncertainty than just Covid. Will customers respond to your marketing? Will your product supply stay consistent? Will your staff perform as you expect?

Looking at the plan, if it bombs, does it take the business down with it? If it hits big, is the dividend worth the risk?

The Importance of Structure in Planning

Analysis paralysis is often created by not having a rubric to apply to the analysis. By looking through the lens of these three scenarios, you have a structure to your thinking. You can then apply any possible plan to his process and run projections from there.

You may want to get more detailed in the scenarios, applying actual numbers or data or keep them vague like this, depending on your process.

I’d like to know what you think? Is it helpful to look at the uncertain future in terms of scenarios?

Working on figuring out how to best approach 2021? I’m running a series of free webinars to help build our your goals and plans.

Join me for some great planning.